The Daily Decision-22-Overconfidence effect
Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision
because you want to make better decisions.
Today is the TWENTY-SECOND episode of The Daily Decision
How confident are you in your answers to questions? For example, if you were asked to spell 10 reasonably difficult words without a dictionary how well would you do?
It turns out most people would guess that their scores would be higher than their actual performance. Confidence is greater than accuracy. Mmm.
This overconfidence effect shows up in various ways.
Some people believe that their sense of direction is better than it really is.
Some people think that they are irreplaceable to his or her employer, when they are not.
An American Idol contestant believes she sings like Beyoncé while her friends ask them themselves: why she sings is Beyond-Me.
A political candidate who doesn’t campaign as much because they already believe that they will be re-elected.
A person who thinks he or she is so smart that they can show up to an SAT test without studying.
So, the next time you feel confident, ask yourself is it based in preparation or puffery?
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As always, Happy Deciding.
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