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The Daily Decision-17-Gambler’s fallacy … Do you have a hot hand? The chances are low.

The Daily Decision-17-Gambler’s fallacy

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

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DD-17 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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Today is the SEVENTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision

I’ve got a hot hand,  You’re Due for a Win, One Time

Likely you’ve heard this expression and others before that refer to someone who is gambling.

What is the evidence for the hot hand phenomenon? The odds are low.

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the is the belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa).

In other words, if you’re playing cards and you haven’t seen a 10-card for a long time, you believe that the card is “due” to turn up.

This is incorrect because each event is independent of events that proceed it and come after it.

Take a coin. If you flip it, there is a 50/50 chance that the coin will show heads up or tails up. Every time the chances are the same. The Gambler’s Fallacy is believing that if someone has flipped 7 consecutive heads a tail must come up soon.

Why are we so prone to fall for this erroneous thinking?

It’s because we conceptualize law of large numbers in a way that leads us to believe that the law of 50/50 is adjustable over time when, in terms of a coin, it never is. In your daily life, try to see and assess events independently before grouping them together erroneously.

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 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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