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The Daily Decision-17-Gambler’s fallacy … Do you have a hot hand? The chances are low.

The Daily Decision-17-Gambler’s fallacy

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-17 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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Today is the SEVENTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision

I’ve got a hot hand,  You’re Due for a Win, One Time

Likely you’ve heard this expression and others before that refer to someone who is gambling.

What is the evidence for the hot hand phenomenon? The odds are low.

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the is the belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa).

In other words, if you’re playing cards and you haven’t seen a 10-card for a long time, you believe that the card is “due” to turn up.

This is incorrect because each event is independent of events that proceed it and come after it.

Take a coin. If you flip it, there is a 50/50 chance that the coin will show heads up or tails up. Every time the chances are the same. The Gambler’s Fallacy is believing that if someone has flipped 7 consecutive heads a tail must come up soon.

Why are we so prone to fall for this erroneous thinking?

It’s because we conceptualize law of large numbers in a way that leads us to believe that the law of 50/50 is adjustable over time when, in terms of a coin, it never is. In your daily life, try to see and assess events independently before grouping them together erroneously.

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-16-Endowment effect … How much does something cost? Depends on who owns it

The Daily Decision-16-Endowment effect

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-16 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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https://dr-z.net/category/dr-z-podcasts/daily-decision/

 

Today is the SIXTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision

 How much is a basic coffee mug worth?

It depends.

  • If you want it, not very much.
  • If you have it, very much.

That’s the result of findings from Kahneman, Knetsch & Thaler (1991).

Participants were either owners or buyers. If they simply sat down next to the mug, they suddenly valued the mug at $7.12 on average. If they were asked to act as buyers, they valued the mug at $2.87.

What explains the difference?

The endowment effect. That is people like and value the things they own (or perceive to own) higher than things that they could own.

The next time you try to bargain for something on eBay, remember that owners and buyers value the same item differently.

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-14-Availability bias

The Daily Decision-14-Availability bias

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-14 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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Today is the FOURTEETH episode of The Daily Decision

Cars or planes? Roofers or Border Patrol agents? Cows or Sharks?

Of these pairs which one is more deadly?

Most people would say flying is more dangerous than driving, being a Border Patrol agent is more dangerous than being a roofer, and sharks are more deadly than cows.

In each case, those answers are incorrect and point out The Availability Bias.

Which is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater “availability” in memory

If a memory is recent, unusual, or emotional, it is likely to be more available and more usable to make decisions

Available doesn’t mean accurate however so the next time you hear of a major event on the news, pause to avoid falling into the availability          bias trap.

Ask yourself, just because it’s easier to remember something, does it make it more true?

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-13-Anchoring bias

The Daily Decision-13-Anchoring bias

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-13 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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https://dr-z.net/category/dr-z-podcasts/daily-decision/

 

Today is the THIRTEENTH episode of The Daily Decision

Think of a boat and an anchor. A boat docks close the shore and drops its anchor so it cannot be blown away by the wind.

A psychological anchor is similar. When we believe a piece of information, it is hard to have winds blow us away from that position.

An anchoring bias occurs when we rely too much on one piece of information, usually the first piece of information presented.

In one famous study by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1974, people were asked to estimate how many African countries were part of the United Nations.

There are currently 193.

  • When presented with the number 10, the guesses were lower. Participants estimated that African countries represented 25% of all UN countries.
  • When presented with the number 65, the guesses were higher. Participants estimated that African countries represented 45% of all UN countries.

Think about your own anchors while making a big purchase, say a car or home.

Be aware of how the first number you hear can anchor your decisions, but not always in your favor.

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-12-Confirmation Bias

The Daily Decision-12-Confirmation Bias

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-12 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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Today is the TWELEVTH episode of The Daily Decision

In the TENTH episode, we began discussing biases that can be divided into 3 types:

decision making biases, social biases, and memory biases

Today we will talk about the “Mother of All Biases.”

Confirmation Bias.

Simply put, Confirmation Bias is the tendency to look, find, and interpret information that confirms an already held belief.

It is the mother of all biases because of its circular nature. It hides inside the starting point of our decisions.

For example, if you believe that left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people, then every time you meet a left-handed person you will unconsciously look for “evidence” to support your existing belief.

In other words, people see what they want to see.

You can use confirmation biases in positive and negative ways. You can look at your students as brilliant or see your employees as underperforming. In both cases, your brain will seek out evidence to support your belief.

Always be woke when it comes to confirmation biases.

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-11-Shortcuts, Heuristics

The Daily Decision-11-Shortcuts, Heuristics

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-11 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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https://dr-z.net/category/dr-z-podcasts/daily-decision/

 

Today is the ELEVENTH episode of The Daily Decision

In the last episode, we talked about biases and that knowing about them helps us recognize blind spots, avoid traps, and make better decisions.

Today the topic is “heuristics.”

What’s that?

Heuristics are mental shortcuts to make decisions. They may work much of the time, but they don’t work all of the time.

Heuristics comes from ancient Greek which means “to find” or to “discover.”

A rule of thumb or educated guess are examples of using a heuristic to make a quick decision that has the practical effect of solving a problem quickly but may not solve a problem for a longer duration.

An example rule of thumb is that 20% of the input creates 80% of the result.

While this observation may be useful, over relying on this heuristic can limit your best decisions.

What heuristics do you use in your own life? How far do they take you?

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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The Daily Decision-10-Biases, Cognitive Biases

The Daily Decision-10-Biases, Cognitive Biases

Hello Hello This is Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, with The Daily Decision

because you want to make better decisions.

M4A

MP3

DD-10 Daily Decision by Dr. Z Podcasts
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https://dr-z.net/category/dr-z-podcasts/daily-decision/

 

Today is the TENTH episode of The Daily Decision

 —

In the last couple of episodes, we have learned three ways to think about decision making: normative (the optimal), descriptive (the actual), and prescriptive (the ever improving)

But sometimes talking theories is like pretending that when we drive there is no traffic.

The same is true in decision making. We can pretend we make perfect decisions, but the traffic that interferes from going from point A to point B are often biases.

Biases are prejudices for or against a thing, idea, person, or group.

In decision making the term “cognitive bias” is often used which is defined as an error in thinking when we process and interpret information.

We have powerful brains, but we are subject to limitations. There are over 200 identified biases.

One bias is called the confirmation bias which is the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.

The best way to make better decisions is to recognize your biases and accept them, then learn from them. Let your limitations become your strengths.

Subscribe to Dr. Z Podcasts to follow other programs such as the People Behind the PhDs, Organ Oracles, and Leaders on the Line. All podcasts are based on my upcoming book. The 6A’s a practical philosophy for living life with meaning and purpose.

 Follow me at DR-Z.net, iTunes, and Facebook at DRZPodcasts.

If you have an idea for a podcast, contact me and maybe we can find a way to create your own podcast produced by me, Dr. Z

 As always, Happy Deciding.

 

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Leaders on the Line 03: Mitch Pisik, Inspiration

Leaders on the Line 03: Mitch Pisik, Inspiration

In Leaders on the Line, Dr. Z explores technical problems and adaptive challenges leaders face in the 21st century. Every show has a theme such as “success,” “team,” or “inspiration” in which Dr. Z and a guest do a deep dive to uncover the secrets of failure and success for leaders of all stripes and times.

 

Mitch Pisik
Mitch Pisik with Dr. Z, Zachary Brooks, “Leaders on the Line”

 

To contact Mitch

Mitch@pisik.consulting631-943-5275Linkedin.com/in/mitchpisik/ Twitter: @mitchpisik

 

About Dr. Z and Dr. Z Podcasts

Thanks for visiting Dr. Z Productions and Podcasts. My name is Zachary Brooks, the “Z” behind “Dr. Z.” Click on and download to one of my eight podcast programs. Feel free to leave any comments and contact me directly at Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or Z@DR-Z.net. Your can follow my research at ResearchGate.

I earned a doctorate in Second Language Acquisition with concentrations in cognitive science and management from the University of Arizona.

The mission of Dr. Z Podcasts is to find, record, and share stories about humans engaged in one of the 6As* of life. The reason I produce and publish podcasts is to connect people to the consequential stories for life.

*6As = athletics, adventure, academics, art, advocacy, human algorithm. The 6As is the name of the book I am writing and the foundation for Dr. Z Podcasts.

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Dr. Z Zachary S Brooks
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Listen to my podcast programs:

Bilingual Decision Making

  • In the Bilingual Decision Making podcasts, Dr. Z returns to his dissertation topic to explore and share research on how one’s language and culture affect decision making.

People Behind the PhDs

  • Science is driven by people which is why in People Behind the PhDs, Dr. Z interviews the people who have PhDs, their journey to earning PhDs, and their scientific and social research.

Organ Oracles

  • Each Organ Oracles podcast consists of inspirational stories of people who have had life-saving organ transplants and their achievements after their life-altering moments.

Win or Learn

  • Not accomplishing goals is a big part of life which creates opportunities for learning. In Win or Learn, we interview the people given an opportunity to learn after not achieving a goal.

About-ish.

  • Since I’m doing a podcast, I might as well make an “about” section with a Podcast.I call it “About-ish” which is about me, more or less.

Human Algorithm

  • Humans have it within them to change their own lives and lives of millions of others. Doubt it? Think of every advance in human history and you will realize the power of human algorithms.

Daily Decision

  • In The Daily Decision, Dr. Z delivers you a one-minute podcast on one decision making topic because you want to make better decisions.

Leaders on the Line

  • In Leaders on the Line, we explore technical problems and adaptive challenges various leaders face in business and politics. Every show has a theme such as “success,” “team,” or “strategy” in which Dr. Z and a guest do a deep dive into case studies to uncover gold.

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